It’s been a minute since I wrote an MLB player props bets post, so I figured Wednesday’s slate would be a great time to get back at it.
We have a loaded 15-game slate in the majors, which began at 1 p.m. ET with the Colorado Rockies taking on the Minnesota Twins and ends with the Texas Rangers and Los Angeles Dodgers facing off at Dodger Stadium at 10:10 p.m. ET. Since we don’t have most of the lineups out for the evening portion of Wednesday’s schedule, I’ll highlight a couple of plays that I like based on the pitching matchup/opponent.
These two plays you can find on FanDuel Sportsbook, but always remember to shop around for the best price as the odds will move throughout the rest of the day. Lastly, if I find any more prop bets that I come across, I’ll update this post.
MLB Best Bets for Wednesday
1. Cody Bellinger to hit a home run (+420, FanDuel) vs. Tampa Bay
To kick off the evening slate on the diamond, I’m taking a shot on Chicago Cubs center field Cody Bellinger’s home run prop, currently listed at +420 on FanDuel.
The veteran outfielder will be going up against Rays starter Aaron Civale, who has struggled this season with a 2-5 record and 5.51 ERA. Civale has allowed 13 home runs, including at least one in six out of his last seven starts. The right-handed starting pitcher has pitched well at Tropicana Field with a 4.82 ERA and .246 OBA (opponents batting average) across seven starts.
However, Civale has allowed nine home runs at home. He’s also had his issues against left-handed hitters, allowing them to hit .280 at the plate with six home runs. Bellinger is a left-handed hitter who’s struggled against right-handed pitching this season (.234).
That said, Bellinger has hit seven home runs off of right-handed pitching with a hard-hit rate of 33% and fly ball rate of 53.6%. As for Civale, he has a whooping 6.83 against LHBs, with an HR/9 of 2.0, a 39% hard-hit rate, and a .357 wOBA. His most-thrown pitch is the cutter (31.5%) this season, which Bellinger crushes with a .371 wOBA.
Based on these advanced statistics from Outlier, plus Bellinger recording a hit in four out of his last five games, it wouldn’t be shocking to see him hit one out of the park at the Trop.
2. Jake Irvin Over 17.5 outs (-114, FanDuel) vs. Detroit
For my second prop bet, I’m rolling with Nationals starter Jake Irvin, who has pitched well on the road this season against the Tigers.
The 27-year-old starter is coming off a solid outing against the Atlanta Braves last week, allowing four hits and striking out four across six innings pitched. Irvin also gave up two walks in the outing, but it didn’t hurt him as the Nats escaped with a 2-1 home win.
The right-handed pitcher has been tremendous on the road this season, sporting a 2.68 ERA and .192 OBA (eight starts). In his last three road starts, Irvin has faced the Cleveland Guardians, Atlanta Braves, and Phillies, where he threw at least six innings twice.
The Nats will be looking for him to give them at least six innings this evening. On Tuesday night, Mitchell Parker went 4.2 innings against Detroit, while the bullpen handled the rest of the workload as the game went into extras.
Irvin shouldn’t have any issues on the mound, as he’s gone OVER 17.5 outs in six out of his last seven road starts. Also, the Tigers are only hitting .228 against right-handed pitching this season.
